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I like Minnesota's Governor Tim Pawlenty, but let me be clear about this up front here. He's presently a distant 4th place at BEST amongst GOP hopefuls for 2012.

As I've written repeatedly over the last few months, the nomination, at present is Gov. Mike Huckabee's to lose. I know the memes that are crawling out of the mouth of Romney supporters, but it's true and you know it.

Pawlenty is plenty conservative enough for the party, and as a popular twice elected Governor of his state he just now joins the field of 3 other Governors who were also popular.

Pawlenty is a nice guy, he's well spoken, he's got a great temperment and he is pretty well known in Minnesota.

But that's about where it ends.

Look at the field so far: Palin & Romney are definitely running. Huckabee is 95% likely to run. Pawlenty doesn't offer anything new that these three haven't already offered.

And keep this in mind for 2012. The winning message will include a component that is anti-tax. (Huckabee is on record to break up the IRS, and convert the nation to a fair tax. And don't listen to Hugh on this one. Though the fair tax is outrageously different than the present system, it would be a morally & Constitutionally appropriate tax, and it WILL be an attractive alternative to the continued escalation of taxes from the Obama administration.)

Romney will be hobbled by the failure of the Massachusetts health care system--a system he authored--where $50 abortions can be accessed on the state's dime, but many needed procedures are not always accessible. That coupled with the fact that he could not finish higher than third in the last election cycle--even after spending gobs of his own cash--bode very poorly for him in attempting another run. Though I am convinced he will run again...

Palin has enormous popularity, enormous brand, and will be able to raise a fer amount of cash by the time the important election cycle comes along. It will be important for her to out perform the others in the debates, to manage her team, message, and brand wisely, and her ability to continue to have that "I am every mom" sort of practicality in order for her to even have a chance.

Huckabee was severely hurt by the Romney forces in the last primary. There were a dozen PACs or so run by Romney staffers that continually fed misinformation to National Review. That dishonest, non-factual, and manipulated information was then repeated by the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter.

He will not be so easily thus manipulated this go around. Coulter and Limbaugh will owe him apologies over the way they portrayed him in 2008. But he will rally the faith-based, the genuine conservative, the disaffected that John McCain seemed to have no use for.

He has the top rated show of the entire weekend on ANY news channel. He invites liberals on to argue with him about policy, and he will have miles of video tape with his STATED positions on things.

Might Romney resurge the Mormon/Christian debate? Yes, possibly, but not in a way that help himself. Might Palin sell more books than the Governor between now then. Of course.

But when the dust settles the image of Huckabee will be his ability take on anyone in the establishment, to win through smiles, hugs, and jokes, and that he will not allow others to brand him this go around.

For all of the above reasons Tim Pawlenty can not win.

But it does not mean he should not run. MANY people RUN for President but few of them think they could actually WIN. The truth is merely running for President brings many side benefits that candidates find very helpful.

Running in 2012 is a good prep lap for 2016 or 2020l. And it wouldn't be the most terrible thing in the world if Pawlenty ran with an eye for the future.

But this go 'round, if Huck wants it, he will be the nominee.

I said it first, I've said it longest, and the rationale still makes the most sense.

Humility and Lower Taxes vs. Harvard Elitism and Out-Of-Control Tax and Spend.

That's just way too easy of a choice!

Ed Morrissey is not widely thought of as a necessarily controversial voice in the blogosphere/new media... But you will not believe some of the stuff he says today between 3-4pm.

Check it out on-tape...


He wants to talk about Palin, as HotAir has provided a good bit of coverage of the governor's step aside this doesn't surprise me...

I may of course have a different view, join us to find out...

In case you haven't heard there has been a pretty significant kerfuffle that has popped up in the past 48 hours between the new king of late night David Letterman (who has been stomping all over Conan) and the last VP candidate for the GOP.

On Tuesday night's show Letterman said the following:


On Wednesday night's show he clearly changed the story:


Letterman is lying on some important specifics.

1. He never once mentioned Bristol Palin in the off color editorial on Tuesday night.
2. The invention that he had been talking about Palin's 18 year old daughter in the jokes is also not true on its face also, because she didn't TAKE Bristol to NYC or the Yankee game.
3. He did imply rape--of a statutory nature--(at minimum) occurring to Palin's daughter. Actually any sexual act against the daughter would have been, even if she had consented, because of how the laws are written.
4. In referring to Palin as a "slut" in he same broadcast it becomes clear that his intention was to broadly paint Palin and her daughters collectively as sexually loose. (In changing his story, and untruthfully claiming Bristol had been the original focus of his attack he actually tips his hand that it was sexual looseness he was attempting to imply.)

In speaking with a prominent anchor at Fox News earlier today I discovered that for such insinuation on a much lower level of intent and reach a television executive lost her job for implying that said anchor was sexually loose at a previous television news employer.

That executive was fired, and it was this Fox News' anchor's opinion that Letterman should be forced to undergo--at minimum--a suspension.

Oh and by the way Dave... America and the Palins are STILL awaiting an apology from you.

To attack on 14 year old, underage daughter of an upstanding American family, is to attack the safety of every 14 year old girl. Especially from a viagra'd-up 62 year old who few would be willing to leave their 14 year old alone with on a television stage, much less a private conversation with.

April 1st!
(What does it mean?)

Resources: The Death and Life of Gabriel Phillips (Stephen's BRAND NEW novel)
The Unusual Suspect: My Calling to the new Hardcore Movement of Faith.

So where's the only place you will get to openly observe the mischief being made by Stephen Baldwin and Kevin McCullough in person this week? CPAC 2009 at the Omni Shoreham Hotel of course! We will be in the exhibit hall signing books, and talking up Xtreme Radio all afternoon. We've already been slated for The Ed Morrissey Show, NRA News, The Don Kroah Show, The Washington Times, and The Scott Hennen Show. (More requests coming in as we speak...)

Our buddy Governor Huckabee speaks at 2pm. And you can watch the whole thing on Townhall.com.

And we sign books in the exhibit hall on Friday at 2pm. Come see us!